CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-10-14T04:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-10-14T04:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27293/-1
CME Note: Slow partial halo CME in the NNW with the source a gradual eruption of a long filament stretched between 15 and 40 degrees longitude along the latitude of 36 degrees N. The eruption is marked by post-eruptive arcades and relatively minor dimming along the filament channel, as seen in AIA 193 and 304 starting after 2023-10-14T04Z. Regarding arrival signature from Tarik Mohammad, LASSOS team: there is a SIR signature early on 2023-10-18 - a shock driven by this SIR (marked by an increase in proton density, bulk speed, and ion temperature). There is likely no sheath region seen after the SIR signature: following the shock, you see the compression region with increased proton density, and bulk speed (the speed is gradually increasing and so is ion temperature). After that, we are in the high-speed stream with lower proton density and enhanced ion temperature.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-10-18T09:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-10-14T13:50Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 448
Longitude (deg): 027W
Latitude (deg): 35N
Half-angular width (deg): 34 

Notes: Poss filament lift-off in NW, some SDO imagery supports but nothing obvious in H-Alpha. Might even be far-sided. Modelled assuming NW source but Low confidence. Very similar results obtained independently by two forecasters. May combine with later NW quadrant CME from same day to pass 1AU as united front.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence for Tony Gillard

Lead Time: 80.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-10-15T01:00Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy